Mobile market forecasts all predict the heavily reliance on GSM/3G/LTE and Mobile WiMax etc over the next 15 years. This is something I have been predicting for the last 10 years. Naturally, mobile forensics will need to play its part and hence the reason for the MTEB educational programme for students and experienced individuals.
Singapore – ABI Research forecasts over five billion mobile subscriptions by the end of 2010, with an approximate 4.8 billion connections having been reached by the end of the year's first quarter. Much of this growth will be registered in developing markets in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.
Africa remains the fastest growing mobile market with a YoY growth of over 22%. Mobile penetration in Asia-Pacific will rise significantly to 65% by the end of 2010. "This unprecedented growth is driven by India and Indonesia, which have together added over 150 million subscriptions in the past four quarters," comments ABI Research analyst Bhavya Khanna. "Falling monthly tariffs and ultra-low-cost mobile handsets have democratised the reach and use of the mobile phone, and aggressive rollouts by mobile operators in these countries will see the current rate of subscriber addition maintained for some time to come."
At the other end of the spectrum, developed countries in North America and Europe continue to add subscriptions despite already having crossed the 100% penetration threshold. Driving this growth in subscriptions are new mobile devices and the ‘third screen' - including netbooks, tablet computers, USB dongles and e-book readers. "The success of Apple's iPad 3G shows that even operators in saturated markets can add subscriptions by introducing innovative and user-friendly devices," says vice president of forecasting Jake Saunders.
In addition, the introduction of 4G data networks such as WiMAX and LTE will see more consumers ditch their cables and access the Internet through mobile broadband connections. Operators such as Clearwire in the United States and Yota in Russia have seen consumers turn to their networks as fast and mobile alternatives to fixed-line broadband.
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SOURCE ABI Research
Mobile market forecasts all predict the heavily reliance on GSM/3G/LTE and Mobile WiMax etc over the next 15 years. This is something I have been predicting for the last 10 years. Naturally, mobile forensics will need to play its part and hence the reason for the MTEB educational programme for students and experienced individuals.
In addition, the introduction of 4G data networks such as WiMAX and LTE will see more consumers ditch their cables and access the Internet through mobile broadband connections. Operators such as Clearwire in the United States and Yota in Russia have seen consumers turn to their networks as fast and mobile alternatives to fixed-line broadband.
Often the problem with these forecasts is the fact that the authors have limited knowledge of the realities within telecommunication networks. They also don't really understand the technology and this article is a prime example.
trewmte, you mention that you envisage us having a heavy reliance on WiMAX over the next 15 years. Indeed this article mentions WiMAX as well. However, the current trends couldn't be further from the truth. What we are seeing is that WiMAX is quickly failing as a technology and will loose out to LTE.
WiMax will fail for the following reasons -
- Latency WiMAX has severe issues with latency which affects any real-time service such as voip, video and financial services etc
- Coverage WiMAX has poor indoor coverage to users
- Adoption The two biggest carriers in North America, Verizon and AT&T have said they are selecting LTE as opposed to WiMAX as well as key carriers in Europe.
Also, as the vast majority of networks and subscribers are GSM-based and LTE provides a much more natural upgrade path than WiMAX.
Regarding customers ditching their cables, again this largely incorrect. For example what we have seen recently with the Iphone in the UK is a dropping of the unlimited data options for o2. All operators now impose data limits as we see the strain on our 3G networks with the recent explosion in smartphones. Network operators desperately want to offload data and that is why home/office users will continue to used fixed-line broadband connections. That is the network rationale behind femtos. Also, fixed lines are required for high-speed, low-latency connections. Sure, there is a definite trend towards communications on the move but fixed lines will not go away.
One important technology that was missed off the list is Wi-Fi which has become the one of the most common wireless technologies in the office and at home. It gives the ubiquity and connection speed required and it's dominance is only set to increase in this space.
Thanks for your reply.
The report is international and I have responded on an international basis because the membership of this forum is international. I don't consider there is any need to single out one marketplace when I post. If I do feel the need, then yes I will think about it.
I wont comment upon the commercial decisions why operators buy these reports and use them for consideratiion in their strategies. I think if you have personal knowledge or doubts about the veracity of the work conducted by ABI's research for their reports, then shouldn't you tell them? I do not work for ABI, but I have seen numerous market reports for many years and have found them to be useful barometers.
Thank you for the acticle.
Joel
Thanks for your reply.
The report is international and I have responded on an international basis because the membership of this forum is international. I don't consider there is any need to single out one marketplace when I post. If I do feel the need, then yes I will think about it.
I wont comment upon the commercial decisions why operators buy these reports and use them for consideratiion in their strategies. I think if you have personal knowledge or doubts about the veracity of the work conducted by ABI's research for their reports, then shouldn't you tell them? I do not work for ABI, but I have seen numerous market reports for many years and have found them to be useful barometers.
Hi trewmte,
My post was discussing the technologies themselves and mentioned multiple commercial territories, so that was very much considered.
This article was free to the public to access, as indeed is this forum which should of course promote healthy debate.
Thanks.
Hi Joe, thanks.
Hi sgrills
The press release is free, but the report isn't. I invite you to think along the lines to go and "buy" the report before you comment any further on what you speculate is in it. The remarks you made about the veracity of ABI research reports are not factual as to how they acquire statistical data or the conclusions they have drawn from the data and are a very unfair, swingeing attack on that organisation when they are not here to defend themselves.
Thanks
OK, gents, let's draw a line under this and move on. Thank you.
Jamie
OK and happy to move on.